I’m not feeling particularly eloquent right now, so I’ll be blunt: Churchill was Churchill for two reasons: (1) he was always Churchill; that is, on the defining issue of his time, he held a consistent position for more than a decade before that position became politically popular; and (2) Munich; that is, Churchill’s position only became politically popular because, for a decade, everyone else tried everything else, until only Churchill was left. (And even then he nearly didn’t become premier.)
My point is that right now we’re going through a period when everyone, but everyone, has subscribed to neo-Keynesean counter-cyclical fiscal principles. As of today, that includes the ostensibly-conservative Harper Tories. I understand the criticism Harper’s taking from the right; but the fact is that Harper couldn’t take a (deeply) fiscally conservative approach in this political climate, at least not without being flung to the very margins. There simply isn’t an appetite for Freidman-esque fiscal policy right now.
But there will be. There will be, that is, if Keynesean policy fails – as a Freidmanian must believe will happen. But for the same reason the British public resisted Churchillian confrontation until every other path had been trod, the Canadian public will, I suggest, resist Freidmanian fiscal conservatism until “stimulus” has been tried and found lacking.
Maybe that day won’t come; all but the ideologues can hope that stimulus will work, that we’ll come out of this recession sooner than we otherwise would have, and will move forward on surer footing. But if stimulus doesn’t work – if, as a fiscal conservative would anticipate, spending shallows but exacerbates the downturn, and expanding the money base triggers significant inflation – if, in the end, Liberal Keyneseanism and Tory Kenyeseanism fail – then there will, finally, ultimately, and if the stars align, be an appetite for conservatism.
But the time to stand for conservatism is not then, at the end; the time to stand is now, and throughout. Canada needs a fiscal Churchill; it needs someone who will speak out for fiscally conservative principles clearly and consistently, someone who’s willing to be a political pariah, lampooned on the CBC and exiled by his party – and who, when everything else is tried, and fails, can lead the way out.
Post a Comment